An Emptying Pipeline

Fewer children, fewer students, fewer colleges

Post-2008 birthrate declines and regional migration patterns have reshaped college markets and labor demand. College enrollment totaled 19.28 million undergraduate students nationwide in Fall 2024, down 8.43% from peak enrollment in 2010 (21.0 million) (5). Declining birth rates have sharply reduced the number of college-aged students in regions like New England and the Midwest, leaving small liberal arts colleges especially vulnerable because they lack national name recognition and robust endowments (6). Larger universities can offset these demographic dips by recruiting nationally or internationally, but smaller schools depend more heavily on local pipelines of high school graduates.


Now, more than ever, women are more likely to focus on their careers, which correlates to the declining birth rate. Vermont's declining population of high school graduates has directly contributed to the enrollment crises at many of its small liberal arts colleges (6).

International Enrollment Decline

According to data from the Institute of International Education, new international enrollments fell 17 percent in the current academic year, following a 7.2 percent decline the year prior.  Many institutions attributed the downturn to visa delays and denials, alongside heightened student concerns about feeling unwelcome in the United States and the broader political climate. While the total number of international students in the U.S. has so far remained relatively stable, experts warn that sustained enrollment declines pose serious risks to the future of U.S. higher education.

The decline in international student enrollment has not only financial implications but also affects the diversity and global perspective on U.S. campuses. Universities rely on tuition from international students, meaning prolonged drops in enrollment could strain budgets and limit opportunities for all students. Experts emphasize that reduced international enrollment may hinder cross-cultural learning experiences, collaborative research, and the development of a globally connected workforce. As colleges and universities adjust recruitment strategies, including expanding online offerings and partnerships abroad, analysts caution that reversing the trend will require addressing both logistical barriers, such as visa processing, and broader perceptions of inclusivity and safety (7).


Footnotes:

5. Hanson, Melanie. “College Enrollment Statistics.” EducationData.org, 15 Nov. 2025, https://educationdata.org/college-enrollment-statistics

6. Hegarty, Stephanie. “World Fertility Rates in ’Unprecedented Decline,’ UN Says.” BBC News, 10 June 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clynq459wxgo

7. Luscombe, Richard. “New International Student Enrollments in US Plunge This Year, Data Shows.” The Guardian, 17 Nov. 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/17/international-student-enrollments-plunge

8. Conte, Niccolo. “Mapped: Birth Rates Around the World in 2025.” Visual Capitalist, 12 Feb. 2026, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-global-birth-rates-around-the-world-2025/